Summary Reports
Summarizing for policy makers current understanding of climate related science and potential impacts for risk assessment.
2010 Jan - The Leading Edge
So much for global cooling: 2009 tied for second warmest year in the instrumental record. The Arctic Oscillation was in a strong negative phase this month causing cooler temperatures in North America, Europe and Russia, and unusually warm temperatures in the Arctic, Alaska, Canada, Greenland, North Eastern Russia, The Middle East, Africa, Asia, Australia, and much of South America.
2009 Dec - The Leading Edge
Understanding the potentials of the law of unintended consequences as we examine what might result from COP15 and/or the adoption of 'Cap & Trade' is as important as understanding the science of climate change and the implications of human caused global warming. Examining the complex mechanisms of 'Cap & Trade' vs. a simple 'Direct Progressive Tax' on Co2 emissions reveals a fatal flaw in the understanding of the advantages of Cap & Trade. In reality, there are no meaningful advantages.
2009 Nov - The Leading Edge
The purpose of this report is to synthesize the most policy-relevant climate science published since the close-off of material for the last IPCC report. The rationale is two-fold. Firstly, this report serves as an interim evaluation of the evolving science midway through an IPCC cycle – IPCC AR5 is not due for completion until 2013. Secondly, and most importantly, the report serves as a handbook of science updates that supplements the IPCC AR4 in time for Copenhagen in December, 2009, and any national or international climate change policy negotiations that follow.
2009 Oct - The Leading Edge
Two stories: 1. British Prime Minister Brown presents the challenge of our time in the clearest terms possible and the "great injustice of climate change". 2. Science teams work to refine the predictability of CO2 and nitrogen in a warming world.
2009 Sep - The Leading Edge
WCC3 - The World Climate Conference held in Geneva, Switzerland for one week included the expert segment (first 3 days) putting together the materials for the expert segment (the last two days) in order to put together and present the conference declaration.
2009 July - The Leading Edge
Oslo, Norway: A meeting of climate scientists, government officials and dignitaries involved in work of climate assessment and policy met to discuss COP15, the meeting coming up in Copenhagen. They illustrate in the meeting that even if there is an agreement, it will still result ultimately in a likely temperature increased of 4.5C (8.1F).
2009 June - The Leading Edge
The purpose of this report is to provide, for a broad range of audiences, an update of the newest understanding of climate change caused by human activities, the social and environmental implications of this change, and the options available for society to respond to the challenges posed by climate change.
2009 May - The Leading Edge
Global Security Combined Assessment: This summary addresses global security implications surrounding likely warming in the event that political will remains stymied by a general lack of understanding of the scientific understanding and confidence levels in the evidence of human caused global warming. It is considerate of implications including the magnitude of impacts including: economic, resource scarcity, human migration and related issues including energy, healthcare, and associated potentials.
Security Implications
What does global warming mean for National Security? The following reports include the Department of Defense, The Center for Strategic & International Studies, The Center for Naval Analysis, and the German Advisory Council. A report from authors including former CIA Director R. James Woolsey; Jay Gulledge, Ph.D., is the senior scientist and program manager for science and impacts at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and John Podesta, president and CEO of the Center for American Progress outlines three case scenarios and their impacts for national security.
2009 Jan. - Global Surface Temperature in GISS Analysis
Calendar year 2008 was the coolest year since 2000, according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis. An overview of influences in the climate system gives good context toward understanding the current summary. The El Nino – La Nina cycle is in a short term cool phase. Solar irradiance remains low in the Schwabe Cycle (typically 11.1 years long). The annual growth rate of climate forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) slowed from a peak close to 0.05 W/m2 per year around 1980-85 to about 0.035 W/m2 in recent years due to slowdown of CH4 and CFC growth rates. Resumed methane growth, if it continued in 2008 as in 2007, adds about 0.005 W/m2. From climate models and empirical analysis, this GHG forcing trend translates into a mean warming rate of ~0.15°C per decade.
2009 Jan. - Sea Level Rise Research Summary
How to reconcile the strict limitations of scientific method with reasonable expectations based on probability and risk have confounded the human-caused global warming (AGW) argument. The reality is sea level will rise. However, there are other oceanic forces that will have economic consequences prior to major sea level rise. Storm strength is a more immediate concern. Note: Tad Pfeffer has responded in an update to this report on September 15th regarding SLR above 5 meters: "...we believe it is reasonable to ponder very high rates of SLR in the next century. However, we also believe that it is problematic to project such a ‘hypothesis’ as a supported theory without proper testing by the scientific method."
