CO2 Lag

Does CO2 Lag behind warming and climate change in the natural cycle? Yes. Is it lagging today? No. CO2 normally lags in the natural cycle unless some abnormal perturbation occurs. If we were in the natural cycle, CO2 levels would be around 280ppm. We are now over 387ppm and therefore CO2 is now leading in our current warming scenario, above natural cycle.
CO2 Lag

Natural Forcing v. Human Caused Forcing

CO2 levels are now around 387ppm, which is much higher than the natural cycle.

One of the things people noticed after Al Gores movie "An Inconvenient Truth" is that in the natural cycle CO2 lags behind warming. This is actually true.

Here is how it works:

The Milankovitch Cycles are the main regulator of the longer term natural cycle forcing that pushes us in and out of ice ages and warm periods (glacial/inter-glacial).

Natural v. Human Caused?

However, there is a difference between natural cycle and human caused warming. In the case of this human caused global warming event, CO2 is leading the warming.

In the natural cycle, the Milankovitch cycles lead the change and most everything else follows.

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Natural Cycle

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