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2009 Jan. - Sea Level Rise Research Summary
How to reconcile the strict limitations of scientific method with reasonable expectations based on probability and risk have confounded the human-caused global warming (AGW) argument. The reality is sea level will rise. However, there are other oceanic forces that will have economic consequences prior to major sea level rise. Storm strength is a more immediate concern. Note: Tad Pfeffer has responded in an update to this report on September 15th regarding SLR above 5 meters: "...we believe it is reasonable to ponder very high rates of SLR in the next century. However, we also believe that it is problematic to project such a ‘hypothesis’ as a supported theory without proper testing by the scientific method."
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Security Implications
What does global warming mean for National Security? The following reports include the Department of Defense, The Center for Strategic & International Studies, The Center for Naval Analysis, and the German Advisory Council. A report from authors including former CIA Director R. James Woolsey; Jay Gulledge, Ph.D., is the senior scientist and program manager for science and impacts at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and John Podesta, president and CEO of the Center for American Progress outlines three case scenarios and their impacts for national security.
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Global Surface Temperature
NCAR/UCAR, NCDC, and NASA GISS Analysis: The current analysis uses surface air temperatures measurements from the following data sets: the unadjusted data of the Global Historical Climatology Network (Peterson and Vose, 1997 and 1998), United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) data, and SCAR (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research) data from Antarctic stations. The basic analysis method is described by Hansen et al. (1999), with several modifications described by Hansen et al. (2001) also included. Modifications to the analysis since 2001 are described on the separate Updates to Analysis.
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