History of Climate Science

The history of climate science goes back to the early 1900's. This section contains a chronological listing of relevant climate science discoveries and events related to anthropogenic global warming. The information here was compiled by Spencer Weart (see links for reference).

Spencer R. Weart

Source “The Discovery of Global Warming” by Spencer Weart

Second edition (revised and updated 2008)

The History of Modern Climate Science

The Short History:

1824 - Joseph Fourier discovered the greenhouse effect.
1859 - John Tyndall discovered that H₂O and CO₂ absorb infrared confirming the Fourier greenhouse effect.
1896 - Svante Arrhenius proposed human CO₂ emissions would prevent earth from entering next ice age (challenged 1906).
1950’s Guy Callendar found H2O and CO2 did not overlap all spectra bands, therefore warming from CO₂ expected (countered the 1906 objections against Arrhenius).
1955 - Hans Suess identified the isotopic signature of industrial based CO₂ emissions.
1956 - Gilbert Plass calculated adding CO₂ would significantly change radiation balance.
1957 - Revelle/Suess suggested oceans would absorb less CO₂ causing more global warming than predicted.
1958/60’s - Charles David Keeling proved CO₂ was increasing in the atmosphere.
70’s/80’s Suke Manabe and James Hansen began modeling climate projections.
Current: NCAR, GISS, Hadley, CRU, RSS TLT, UAH, MSU, Glacier Melt, Sea Level Rise, Latitudinal Shift all confirm models.

The (more) Detailed History:

1800-1870

Level of carbon dioxide gas (CO₂) in the atmosphere, as later measured in ancient ice, is about 290 ppm (parts per million). Mean global temperature (1850-1870) is about 13.6°C.
First Industrial Revolution. Coal, railroads, and land clearing speed up greenhouse gas emission, while better agriculture and sanitation speed up population growth.

1824

Joseph Fourier calculates that the Earth would be far colder if it lacked an atmosphere. =>Simple models

1859

Tyndall discovers that some gases block infrared radiation. He suggests that changes in the concentration of the gases could bring climate change. =>Other gases

1896

Arrhenius publishes first calculation of global warming from human emissions of CO₂. =>Simple models

1897

Chamberlin produces a model for global carbon exchange including feedbacks. =>Simple models

1870-1910

Second Industrial Revolution. Fertilizers and other chemicals, electricity, and public health further accelerate growth.

1914-1918

World War I. Governments learn to mobilize and control industrial societies.

1920-1925

Opening of Texas and Persian Gulf oil fields inaugurates era of cheap energy.

1930s

Global warming trend since late 19th century reported. =>Modern temp's=>Climate cycles
Milankovitch proposes orbital changes as the cause of ice ages.

1938

Callendar argues that CO₂ greenhouse global warming is underway, reviving interest in the question. =>CO₂ greenhouse

1939-1945

World War II. Grand strategy is largely driven by a struggle to control oil fields.

1945

US Office of Naval Research begins generous funding of many fields of science, some of which happen to be useful for understanding climate change. =>Government

1956

Ewing and Donn offer a feedback model for quick ice age onset. =>Simple models
Phillips produces a somewhat realistic computer model of the global atmosphere. =>Models (GCMs)
Plass calculates that adding CO₂ to the atmosphere will have a significant effect on the radiation balance. =>Radiation math

1957

Launch of Soviet Sputnik satellite. Cold War concerns support 1957-58 International Geophysical Year, bringing new funding and coordination to climate studies. =>International
Revelle finds that CO₂ produced by humans will not be readily absorbed by the oceans. =>CO₂ greenhouse

1958

Telescope studies show a greenhouse effect raises temperature of the atmosphere of Venus far above the boiling point of water. =>Venus & Mars

1960

Mitchell reports downturn of global temperatures since the early 1940s.=>Modern temp's
Keeling accurately measures CO₂ in the Earth's atmosphere and detects an annual rise. =>CO₂ greenhouse The level is 315 ppm. Mean global temperature (five-year average) is 13.9°C.

1962

Cuban Missile Crisis, peak of the Cold War.

1963

Calculations suggest that feedback with water vapor could make the climate acutely sensitive to changes in CO₂ level. =>Radiation math

1965

Boulder, Colo. meeting on causes of climate change: Lorenz and others point out the chaotic nature of climate system and the possibility of sudden shifts. =>Chaos theory

1966

Emiliani's analysis of deep-sea cores shows the timing of ice ages was set by small orbital shifts, suggesting that the climate system is sensitive to small changes. =>Climate cycles

1967

International Global Atmospheric Research Program established, mainly to gather data for better short-range weather prediction, but including climate.International
Manabe and Wetherald make a convincing calculation that doubling CO₂ would raise world temperatures a couple of degrees. =>Radiation math

1968

Studies suggest a possibility of collapse of Antarctic ice sheets, which would raise sea levels catastrophically. =>Sea rise & ice

1969

Astronauts walk on the Moon, and people perceive the Earth as a fragile whole. =>Public opinion
Budyko and Sellers present models of catastrophic ice-albedo feedbacks. =>Simple models
Nimbus III satellite begins to provide comprehensive global atmospheric temperature measurements. =>Government

1970

First Earth Day. Environmental movement attains strong influence, spreads concern about global degradation. =>Public opinion
Creation of US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the world's leading funder of climate research. =>Government
Aerosols from human activity are shown to be increasing swiftly. Bryson claims they counteract global warming and may bring serious cooling. =>Aerosols

1971

SMIC conference of leading scientists reports a danger of rapid and serious global change caused by humans, calls for an organized research effort. =>International
Mariner 9 spacecraft finds a great dust storm warming the atmosphere of Mars, plus indications of a radically different climate in the past .=>Venus & Mars

1972

Ice cores and other evidence show big climate shifts in the past between relatively stable modes in the space of a thousand years or so, especially around 11,000 years ago. =>Rapid change

1973

Oil embargo and price rise bring first "energy crisis". =>Government

1974

Serious droughts since 1972 increase concern about climate, with cooling from aerosols suspected to be as likely as warming; scientists are doubtful as journalists talk of a new ice age.=>Public opinion

1975

Warnings about environmental effects of airplanes leads to investigations of trace gases in the stratosphere and discovery of danger to ozone layer. =>Other gases
Manabe and collaborators produce complex but plausible computer models which show a temperature rise of several degrees for doubled CO₂. =>Models (GCMs)

1976

Studies show that CFCs (1975) and also methane and ozone (1976) can make a serious contribution to the greenhouse effect. =>Other gases
Deep-sea cores show a dominating influence from 100,000-year Milankovitch orbital changes, emphasizing the role of feedbacks. =>Climate cycles
Deforestation and other ecosystem changes are recognized as major factors in the future of the climate. =>Biosphere
Eddy shows that there were prolonged periods without sunspots in past centuries, corresponding to cold periods .=>Solar variation

1977

Scientific opinion tends to converge on global warming, not cooling, as the chief climate risk in next century. =>Public opinion

1978

Attempts to coordinate climate research in US end with an inadequate National Climate Program Act, accompanied by rapid but temporary growth in funding. =>Government

1979

Second oil "energy crisis." Strengthened environmental movement encourages renewable energy sources, inhibits nuclear energy growth. =>Public opinion
US National Academy of Sciences report finds it highly credible that doubling CO₂ will bring 1.5-4.5°C global warming. =>Models (GCMs)
World Climate Research Programme launched to coordinate international research. =>International

1981

Election of Reagan brings backlash against environmental movement to power. Political conservatism is linked to skepticism about global warming. =>Government
IBM Personal Computer introduced. Advanced economies are increasingly delinked from energy.
Hansen and others show that sulfate aerosols can significantly cool the climate, raising confidence in models showing future greenhouse warming. =>Aerosols
Some scientists predict greenhouse warming "signal" should be visible by about the year 2000. =>Modern temp's

1982

Greenland ice cores reveal drastic temperature oscillations in the space of a century in the distant past. =>Rapid change
Strong global warming since mid-1970s is reported, with 1981 the warmest year on record. =>Modern temp's

1983

Reports from US National Academy of Sciences and Environmental Protection Agency spark conflict, as greenhouse warming becomes prominent in mainstream politics. =>Government

1985

Ramanathan and collaborators announce that global warming may come twice as fast as expected, from rise of methane and other trace greenhouse gases.=>Other gases
Villach Conference declares consensus among experts that some global warming seems inevitable, calls on governments to consider international agreements to restrict emissions.=>International
Antarctic ice cores show that CO₂ and temperature went up and down together through past ice ages, pointing to powerful biological and geochemical feedbacks. =>CO₂
Broecker speculates that a reorganization of North Atlantic Ocean circulation can bring swift and radical climate change. =>The oceans

1987

Montreal Protocol of the Vienna Convention imposes international restrictions on emission of ozone-destroying gases. =>International

1988

News media coverage of global warming leaps upward following record heat and droughts plus testimony by Hansen. =>Public opinion
Toronto conference calls for strict, specific limits on greenhouse gas emissions; UK Prime Minister Thatcher is first major leader to call for action. =>International
Ice-core and biology studies confirm living ecosystems give climate feedback by way of methane, which could accelerate global warming. =>Other gases
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is established. =>International
Level of CO₂ in the atmosphere reaches 350 ppm.

1989

Fossil-fuel and other U.S. industries form Global Climate Coalition to tell politicians and the public that climate science is too uncertain to justify action. =>Public opinion

1990

First IPCC report says world has been warming and future warming seems likely. =>International

1991

Mt. Pinatubo explodes; Hansen predicts cooling pattern, verifying (by 1995) computer models of aerosol effects. =>Aerosols
Global warming skeptics claim that 20th-century temperature changes followed from solar influences. (The solar-climate correlation would fail in the following decade.) =>Solar variation
Studies from 55 million years ago show possibility of eruption of methane from the seabed with enormous self-sustained warming. =>Rapid change

1992

Conference in Rio de Janeiro produces UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, but US blocks calls for serious action. =>International
Study of ancient climates reveals climate sensitivity in same range as predicted independently by computer models. =>Models (GCMs)

1993

Greenland ice cores suggest that great climate changes (at least on a regional scale) can occur in the space of a single decade. =>Rapid change

1995

Second IPCC report detects "signature" of human-caused greenhouse effect warming, declares that serious warming is likely in the coming century. =>International
Reports of the breaking up of Antarctic ice shelves and other signs of actual current warming in polar regions begin affecting public opinion. =>Public opinion

1997

Toyota introduces Prius in Japan, first mass-market electric hybrid car; swift progress in large wind turbines and other energy alternatives.
International conference produces Kyoto Protocol, setting targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions if enough nations sign onto a treaty. =>International

1998

"Super El Niño" causes weather disasters and warmest year on record (approximately matched by 2005 and 2007). Borehole data confirm extraordinary warming trend. =>Modern temp's
Qualms about arbitrariness in computer models diminish as teams model ice-age climate and dispense with special adjustments to reproduce current climate. =>Models (GCMs)

1999

Criticism that satellite measurements show no warming are dismissed by National Academy Panel. =>Modern temp's
Ramanathan detects massive "brown cloud" of aerosols from South Asia. =>Aerosols

2000

Global Climate Coalition dissolves as many corporations grapple with threat of warming, but oil lobby convinces US administration to deny problem. =>Public opinion
Variety of studies emphasize variability and importance of biological feedbacks in carbon cycle, liable to accelerate warming. =>Biosphere

2001

Third IPCC report states baldly that global warming, unprecedented since end of last ice age, is "very likely," with possible severe surprises. Effective end of debate among all but a few scientists. =>International
Bonn meeting, with participation of most countries but not US, develops mechanisms for working towards Kyoto targets. =>International
National Academy panel sees a "paradigm shift" in scientific recognition of the risk of abrupt climate change (decade-scale). =>Rapid change
Warming observed in ocean basins; match with computer models gives a clear signature of greenhouse effect warming. =>Models (GCMs)

2002

Studies find surprisingly strong "global dimming," due to pollution, has retarded arrival of greenhouse warming, but dimming is now decreasing. =>Aerosols

2003

Numerous observations raise concern that collapse of ice sheets (West Antarctica, Greenland) can raise sea levels faster than most had believed. =>Sea rise & ice
Deadly summer heat wave in Europe accelerates divergence between European and US public opinion. =>Public opinion

2004

In controversy over temperature data covering past millenium, most conclude climate variations were not comparable to the post-1980 warming.
=>Modern temp's; =>Solar variation
First major books, movie and art work featuring global warming appear. =>Public opinion

2005

Kyoto treaty goes into effect, signed by major industrial nations except US. Work to retard emissions accelerates in Japan, Western Europe, US regional governments and corporations. =>International
Hurricane Katrina and other major tropical storms spur debate over impact of global warming on storm intensity.
Level of CO₂ in the atmosphere reaches 380 ppm.

2007

Fourth IPCC report warns that serious effects of warming have become evident; cost of reducing emissions would be far less than the damage they will cause. =>International

2009

Many experts warn that global warming is arriving at a faster and more dangerous pace than anticipated just a few years earlier. =>International
Level of CO₂ in the atmosphere reaches 385 ppm.
Mean global temperature (five-year average) is 14.5°C, the warmest in hundreds, perhaps thousands of years.